Peer-Reviewed Publications at Dr. Kaiyu Guan's group (Google Scholar):

Area 3: Carbon, GHG and crop yield quantification

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Featured publications:

● Yang, W. H.*, Guan, K., DeLucia, E. H., Wagner-Riddle, C., Bernacchi, C. J., Yu, Z., Peng, B., Li, Z., Butterbach-Bahl, K., Griffis, T. J., Groffman, P. M., Hall, S. J., Johnson, J. M. F., Lee, D. K., Liu, L., Moore, D. J. P., Nevison, C., Novick, K. A., Ogle, S. M., Pelster, D. E., Silver, W. L., Tang, J., Weintraub-Leff, S. R., Zondlo, M. A., Brown, S. E., Eddy Iii, W. C., Kantola, I. B., Vittore, K. M. (2026) "N2Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions". Environmental Research Letters. 21, 044015.

● Zhai, A.J., Wang, X., Li, K., Jiang, Z., Zhou, J., Wang, S., Jin, Z., Guan, K., Wang, S. (2026) "CropCraft: Complete Structural Characterization of Crop Plants From Images". Thirteenth International Conference on 3D Vision.

● Jin, Z.*, Liu, L., Yang, Q., Jia, X., Tao, S., Guo, Y., Ghosh, R., Wang, S., Zhu, Q., Jung, M., Guan, K., Kumar, V., Reichstein, M., Fang, J., Luo, Y. (2026) "Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning for Global Change Ecology Research". Global Change Biology. 32, e70742.

● Wang, X., Guan, K.*, Wang, S.*, Bailey, B.N., Ainsworth, E.A., Jiang, Z., Li, K. (2025) "Impact of vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits on simulating soybean canopy photosynthesis via 1D and 3D modeling". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 377, 110941.

● Zhang, J.*, Guan, K.*, Chen, Z., Huang, Y., Zhao, K., Peng, B., Wang, S., Wu, X., Wang, S., Banerjee, A., Vergopolan, N., Fu, R., Zhao, S., Colussi, J. (2025) "Transfer learning for improved crop yield predictions in a cross-scale pathway: a case study for Brazilian national soybean". International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. 145, 104981.

● Lobell, D., Di Tommaso, S., Zhou, Q., Ma, Y., Specht, J., Guan, K. (2025) "The mixed effects of recent cover crop adoption on US cropland productivity." Nature Sustainability.

● Li, Z.*, Guan, K.*, Zhou, W., Peng, B., Nafziger, E.D., Grant, R.F., Jin, Z., Tang, J., Margenot, A.J., Lee, D., Bernacchi, C.J., DeLucia, E.H., Ciampitti, I., Hu, T., Ye, L., Till, J., Jia, M. (2025) "Comparing continuous-corn and soybean-corn rotation cropping systems in the U.S. central Midwest: Trade-offs among crop yield, nutrient losses, and change in soil organic carbon". Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 393, 109739.

● Zhang, J., Guan, K., Chen, Z., Hipple, J., Huang, Y., Peng, B., Wang, S., Xu, X., Jin, Z., Zhao, K., Jong, M. (2025) "Aligning satellite-based phenology in a deep learning model for improved crop yield estimates over large regions". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 372, 110675.

● Qin, R., Guan, K., Peng, B., Zhang, F., Zhou, W., Tang, J., Hu, T., Grant, R., Runkle, B.R.K., Reba, M., Wu, X. (2025) "A model-data fusion approach for quantifying the carbon budget in cotton agroecosystems across the United States". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 363, 110407.

● Potash, E.*, Bradford, M.A., Oldfield, E.E., and Guan, K. (2025) "Measure-and-remeasure as an economically feasible approach to crediting soil organic carbon at scale". Environmental Research Letters. 20, 024025.

● Liu, L., Zhou, W., Guan, K.*, Peng, B., Xu, S., Tang, J., Zhu, Q., Till, J., Jia, X., Jiang, C., Wang, S., Qin, Z., Kong, H., Grant, R., Mezbahuddin, S., Kumar, V., and Jin, Z.* (2023) "Knowledge-based artificial intelligence significantly improved agroecosystem carbon cycle quantification". Nature Communications. 15(1), 357.

● Yang, Q., Liu, L., Zhou, J., Ghosh, R., Peng, B., Guan, K., Tang, J., Zhou, W., Kumar, V., Jin, Z.* (2023) "A flexible and efficient knowledge-guided machine learning data assimilation (KGML-DA) framework for agroecosystem prediction in the US Midwest". Remote Sensing of Environment. 299, 113880.

● Potash, E., Guan, K., Margenot, A. J., Lee, D., Boe, A., Douglass, M., Heaton, E., Jang, C., Jin, V., Li, N., Mitchell, R., Namoi, N., Schmer, M., Wang, S., Zumpf, C. (2023) "Multi-site evaluation of stratified and balanced sampling of soil organic carbon stocks in agricultural fields". Geoderma. 438, 116587.

● Ye, L., Guan, K., Qin, Z., Wang, S., Zhou, W., Peng, B., Grant, R., Tang, J., Hu, T., Jin, Z., Schaefer, D. (2023) "Improved quantification of cover crop biomass and ecosystem services through remote sensing-based model-data fusion". Environmental Research Letters.

● Guan, K.*, Jin, Z.*, Peng, B.*, Tang, J.*, DeLucia, E.H., West, P., Jiang, C., Wang, S., Kim, T., Zhou, W., Griffis, T., Liu, L., Yang, W.H., Qin, Z., Yang, Q., Margenot, A., Stuchiner, E.R., Kumar, V., Bernacchi, C., Coppess, J., Novick, K.A., Gerber, J., Jahn, M., Khanna, M., Lee, D., Chen, Z., Yang, S. (2023) "A scalable framework for quantifying field-level agricultural carbon outcomes". Earth-Science Reviews. 104462.

● Qin, Z.*, Guan, K.*, Zhou, W., Peng, B., Tang, J., Jin, Z., Grant, R., Hu, T., Villamil, M.B., DeLucia, E., Margenot, A., Umakant, M., Chen, Z., and Coppess, J. (2023) "Assessing long-term impacts of cover crops on soil organic carbon in the central U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems". Global Change Biology.

● Yang, Y., Liu, L., Zhou, W., Guan, K., Tang, J., Kim, T., Grant, R.F., Peng, B., Zhu, P., Li, Z., Griffis, T.J. and Jin, Z*. (2022) "Distinct driving mechanisms of non-growing season N2O emissions call for spatial-specific mitigation strategies in the US Midwest". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 324, 109108.

● Zhou, W., Kaiyu, G.*, Peng, B., Margenot, A., Lee, D.K., Tang, J., Jin, Z., Grant, R., DeLucia, E., Qin, Z., Wander, M.M., and Sheng, W. (2022) "How does uncertainty of soil organic carbon stock affect the calculation of carbon budgets and soil carbon credits for croplands in the U.S. Midwest?". Geoderma.

● Li, Z.*, Guan, K.*, Zhou, W., Peng, B., Jin, Z., Tang, J., Grant, R.F., Nafziger, E.D., Margenot, A.J., Gentry, L.E., DeLucia, E.H., Yang, W.H., Cai, Y., Qin, Z., Archontoulis, S., Fernández, F.G., Yu, Z., Lee, D.K., and Yang, Y. (2022) "Assessing the impacts of pre-growing-season weather conditions on soil nitrogen dynamics and corn productivity in the US Midwest". Field Crops Research. 284, 108563.

● Liu, L., Xu, S., Tang, J., Guan, K., Griffis, J.T., Erickson, M.D., Frie, A.L., Jia, X., Kim, T., Miller, L.T., Peng, B., Wu, S., Yang, Y., Zhou, W., Kumar, V., and Jin, Z. (2022) "KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N2O emission using data from mesocosm experiments". Geoscientific Model Development. 15(7), 2839-2858.

● Potash, R.*, Guan, K.*, Margenot, A., Lee, D., Delucia, E., Wang, S., and Jang, C. (2022) "How to estimate soil organic carbon stocks of agricultural fields? Perspectives using ex ante evaluation". Geoderma. 411, 115693.

● Vardon, D. R., Sherbacow, B. J., Guan, K., Heyne, J. S., and Abdullah, Z. (2022) "Realizing "Net-Zero-Carbon" sustainable aviation fuel". Joule.

● Zhou, W.*, Guan, K.*, Peng, B.*, Tang, J., Jin, Z., Jiang, C., Grant, R., and Mezbahuddin, S. (2021) "Quantifying carbon budget, crop yields and their responses to environmental variability using the ecosys model for U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 307, 108521.

● Peng, B.*, Guan, K.*, et al. (2020) "Towards a multiscale crop modelling framework for climate change adaptation assessment". Nature Plants. 6(4), 338-348.

● Peng, B.*, Guan, K.*, Chen, M., Lawrence, D.M., Pokhrel, Y., Suyker, A. et al. (2018) "Improving Maize Growth Processes in the Community Land Model: Implementation and Evaluation". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 250-251, 64-89.

● Sultan, B.*, Guan, K.*, Kouressy, M., Biasutti, M., Piani, C., Hammer, G.L., Mclean, G., and Lobell, D.B. (2014) "Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa". Environmental Research Letters. 9(10).

● Li, Y.*, Guan, K.* et al. (2019) "Towards building a transparent statistical model for improving crop yield prediction: Modeling rainfed corn in the U.S.". Field Crops Research. 234, 55-66.

● Qin, Z.*, Guan, K*, Zhou, W., Peng, B., Villamil, B., Jin, Z., Tang, J., Grant, R., Gentry, L., Margenot, A., Bollero, G. and Li, Z. (2021) "Assessing the impacts of cover crops on maize and soybean yield in the U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems". Field Crops Research.

Other Publications:

● Palmero, F.*, Davidson, E. A., Guan, K., Eagle, A. J., Birgé, H. E., Prasad, P. V. V., Hefley, T. J., Schussler, J. R., Ciampitti, I. A*. (2026) "Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations". Nature Communications.

● Mandrini, G.*, Davidson, E. A., Nafziger, E. D., Eagle, A. J., Pittelkow, C. M., Gentry, L. F., Schnitkey, G. D., Guan, K., Martin, N. F., Chen, Z., Alles, K., Ciampitti, I. A.* (2025) "A market-based insurance approach aligns environmental and economic outcomes in maize nitrogen management". Communications Earth & Environment. 7, 26.

● Kim, N., Jang, C., Yang, W.H., Guan, K., DeLucia, E.H., Lee, D. (2025) "Spatial variability of agricultural soil carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide fluxes: Characterization and recommendations from spatially high-resolution, multi-year dataset". Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 387, 109636.

● Nand, V., Qi, Z., et al. (including Guan, K., Zhou, W., Grant, R., Peng, B.) "Evaluation of multimodel averaging approaches for ensembling evapotranspiration and yield simulations from maize models". Journal of Hydrology. 133631.

● Kimball, B.A. et al. (including Guan, K., Peng, B., Zhou, W.) (2024) "Simulation of soil temperature under maize: An inter-comparison among 33 maize models.". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 351, 110003.

● Lee, Y., Khanna, M., Chen, L., Shi, R., Guest, J., BlancBetes, E., Jiang, C., Guan, K., Hudiburg, T., Delucia, E. (2023) "Quantifying uncertainties in greenhouse gas savings and mitigation costs with cellulosic biofuels". European Review of Agricultural Economics. jbad036.

● Zhang, J., Guan, K.*, Fu, R.*, Peng, B., Zhao, S., Zhuang, Y. (2023) "Evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from dynamical models over South America". Journal of Hydrometeorology.

● Zhao, C., Stöckle, C.O., Karimi, T., Nelson, R.L., Evert, F.V.K., Pronk, A.A., Riddle, A.A., Marshall, E., Raymundo, R., Li, Y., Guan, K., Gustafson, D., Hoogenboom, G., and Asseng, S. (2022) "Potential benefits of climate change for potatoes in the United States". Environmental Research Letters.

● Novick, K.A.*, Metzger, S., Anderegg, W.R., Barnes, M., Cala, D.S., Guan, K., Hemes, K.S., Hollinger, D.Y., Kumar, J., Litvak, M., Lombardozzi, D., Normile, C.P., Oikawa, P., Runkle, B.R., Torn, M. and Wiesner, S. (2022) "Informing Nature-based Climate Solutions for the U.S. with the best-available science". Global Change Biology.

● Li, R., Lombardozzi, D., Shi, M., Frankenberg, C., Parazoo, N.C., Köhler, P., Yi, K., Guan, K. and Yang, X. (2022) "Representation of leaf-to-canopy radiative transfer processes improves simulation of far-red solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence in the Community Land Model version 5". Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. e2021MS002747.

● Guan, K.*, Caylor, K.K., Good, S.P., Biasutti, M., Medvigy, D., Pan, M., Wood, E.F. and SATO, H. (2014) "Continental-scale impacts of intra-seasonal rainfall variability on simulated ecosystem responses in Africa". Biogeosciences. 11, 6939-6954.

● Rastogi, B., Miller, J., Trudeau, M., Andrews, A., Hu, L., Mountain, M., Nehrkorn, T., Mund, J., Guan, K., and Alden, C. (2021) "Evaluating consistency between total column CO2 retrievals from OCO-2 and the in-situ network over North America: Implications for carbon flux estimation". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

● Kim, T., Jin, Z., Smith, T., Yang, Y., Yang, Y., Liu, L., Phillips, K., Guan, K., Hunter, L., and Zhou., W. (2021) "A metamodeling approach to identifying nitrogen loss hotspots and mitigation potential in the US Corn Belt". Environmental Research Letters.

● Xu, T., Guan, K., Peng, B. and Zhao, L. (2021) "Machine Learning-based Modeling of Spatio-temporally Varying Responses of Rainfed Corn Yield to Climate, Soil and Management in the U.S. Corn Belt". Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence.

● Benes, B., Guan, K., Lang, M., Long, S., Lynch, J., Marshall-Colon, A., Peng, B., Schnable, J., Sweetlove, L. and Turk, M. (2020) "Multiscale computational models can guide experimentation and targeted measurements for crop improvement". The Plant Journal.

● Cheng, Y., Huang, M., Chen, M., Guan, K., Bernacchi, C., Peng, B., and Tan, Z. (2020) "Parameterizing Perennial Bioenergy Crops in Version 5 of the Community Land Model Based on Site-Level Observations in the Central Midwestern United States". Journal of Advances in Modeling the Earth System. 12, e2019MS001719.

● Guan, K., Sultan, B., Biasutti, M., and Lobell, D.B. (2015) "What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa". Geophysical Research Letters. 42(19).

● Alden, C.B., Miller, J.B., Gatti, L.V., Gloor, M.M., Guan, K., ..., and Diffenbaugh, N.S. (2016) "Regional atmospheric CO2 inversion reveals seasonal and geographic differences in heat and drought impacts in the Amazon". Global Change Biology. 22, 3427-3443.